Focus Online and the market experts from Baehr & Fess who specialize in residual value analyses have created new car forecasts. As every six months, "residual value giants" were chosen over four years. Therefore, the current estimates relate to a new vehicle bought in December 2021 and sold again in December 2025.
According to the experts, the average loss in value across all car classes is 24.2 percent, with an annual mileage of 15,000 kilometers in the first year after the new registration. In the following years, it is only around five to six percent. Winners are determined in two categories for the forecasts: relative residual value giants in percent and absolute residual value giants in euros.
In the forecasts for the electric car segment, the mid-range SUVs, Audi Q4 e-tron, and Tesla Model Y share first place in terms of relative loss in value, but only achieve a residual value of 53 percent in the forecast - almost 10 percent less than a combustion Porsche 718 Cayman, which still achieves 62 percent after four years. The new Porsche Taycan electric car takes third place, but at 52 percent, it is not nearly as stable in value as the conventionally powered 911 (58%). Among the plug-in hybrids, SUVs from Mercedes (GLC 300 e 4MATIC Coupé & GLA 250 e) and Audi (Q5 50 TFSI e quattro S tronic) take the first three places.
In the category of total depreciation, the Dacia Spring small SUV is at the forefront of the electric car with the lowest depreciation in euros, followed by the subcompact Smart EQ ForTwo and the battery version of the subcompact Renault Twingo. However, after four years, according to the forecast, just 37 percent of the residual value of the Dacia and only 30 percent of the other models. Also, the Hyundai Ioniq electric sedan wins ahead of the Renault Captur small SUV and the Opel Astra hybrid models.
The high purchase premiums in Europe distorted market prices and often made leasing new electric cars much more attractive than the young used ones, the experts explain the results. "In some cases, the ranges almost double with a new generation of models. That, of course, makes the previous generation anything but attractive," says Dieter Fess from Bähr & Fess Forecasts.